On Divergence

Something I've never been able to reconcile in my head is the notion of divergence. When I speak of divergence, I don't refer to the mathematical concept but rather the idea that two identical people - up to just one event - one sentence - one serendipitous event - can wildly vary in out come. There is a seemingly nefarious truth to reality: it just takes one thing to go wrong, or go right.
The first time I'd encountered the idea was when in my old neighbourhood in which I had grown up in. When our mother had first moved to Canada - she'd arrived a single mother who had gotten from dentist to dishwasher, with 4 children in tow. Two girls, two boys.
Now, one of our neighbours was in quite a similar situation. A family of 3, of similar culture, familial situation, with a single mother responsible for somehow pulling the miracle off of raising young boys. Ironically, the two boys - who had been brothers, quite reminded me of my brother and I. The younger one who was similar to me, had always been cheerful; known as being a laugh; and well loved as someone full of life. The older brother on the contrary, had been quiet, tended to himself, and headstrong - and perhaps a bit cunning, as well. However, our neighbourhood was problematic. My older brother had seemingly gotten himself on a bad path; and my mother prioritized us; and such we moved and relocated to a quieter neighbourhood. My brother to his credit, completely wisened up - built an impressive career for himself, and became a mathematician and later respectable software engineer. I went on to study physics.
But the two other brothers, who had so closely resembled my brother and I; did not fare well. One was incarcerated for murder (the elder), and the younger now lives a life of crime.
It was upon that realization I often found myself thinking "what was the difference? where was that single moment in which we had somehow prevented ourselves from the 'bad' ending in which we were deemed worthy of salvation?"
And indeed, as I type this - I find myself realizing I'm in this moment again. This time, in an even more bittersweet case someone who mattered, who does matter, who has taken a chance on us and shown us intense generosity - who reminds so much of myself, with a story in an almost divinely comedic manner, nearly identical to mine - seems to have gotten the 'bad' ending in their game of life.
I find myself now asking the question I had first asked myself years ago in the case of the two brothers - "what was that divergence, between us and them that had resulted in such drastic difference in outcome? and more importantly; why am i deserving of the grace?" - though ironically this time, unlike the case of the brothers, my friend is by most societal metrics intensely successful. But, there is an obvious gap in the soul.
The God's honest truth is I don't think I'll know the answer to those two questions. I remember the first time I'd watched breaking bad, Walt said this line to Jesse and for the first time; someone had seemingly captured the essence of my pain with the notion of divergence:
"I mean, no matter how well I explain it, these days she just has this... this... I mean, I truly believe there exists some combination of words. There must exist certain words in a certain specific order that can explain all of this, but with her I just can't ever seem to find them"
so to my friend - on the off chance you might read this some day and deduce I speak of you, I pray that I'm wrong. In the case I'm right; may God heal your pain and show you the grace you've shown me.